How to help prepare for future shocks to bond liquidity

24/04/2020
How to help prepare for future shocks to bond liquidity

Summary

In recent weeks, the status quo of bond liquidity has been turned on its head. Amid high levels of volatility, high-quality bonds have sometimes looked more stressed than their so-called riskier counterparts. While these assets and best-quality credit should still outperform past the current market crisis, there are two main lessons for bond investors from the recent market dislocation.

Key takeaways

  • Global bond markets have seen increased volatility in the wake of the coronavirus crisis that has upended the bond liquidity status quo
  • Investors who were unable or unwilling to sell riskier assets rushed to sell what they considered their most liquid holdings, but this put more pressure on higher-rated issuers
  • While benefiting from central bank intervention, bond markets are likely to remain volatile in the medium term
  • Adding liquid interest rate futures and credit index derivatives to a portfolio, along with a good cash buffer, could help contain portfolio volatility
  • Investors should focus on high-quality issuers with the cashflow and capital structure to help survive the economic shutdown

After the initial sell-off in risk assets prompted by the coronavirus pandemic, many investors sought the perceived safety of US Treasury securities, pushing yields across all maturities below 1% for the first time. This drop proved to be the start of a period of fluctuations that was mirrored across global bond markets, providing an uncharted landscape for investors to navigate.

The volatility of the aggregate 10-year yield across the G3 (the euro area, US and Japan) quadrupled (see graph), while the surge in spread volatility was just as fast and furious in emerging-market assets and developed-market corporate credit. The hierarchy of bond risk and liquidity was upended: on some key measures those bonds that are seen as less volatile – because of the security and liquidity they provide – looked the most stressed (see chart).

Widening spreads in credit assets

Chart: Widening spreads in credit assets

For illustration purposes only.
* The credit spread is an indication of the difference between yields on bonds subject to default risk and government bonds considered free of such risk.
** The Z score indicates the number of standard deviations, an indication of how far the current credit spread is from the mean or average credit spread.
Source: Bloomberg, Allianz Global Investors, 1 April 2020.

G3 10-year government bond yield volatillity (normalised)

Chart:G3 10-year government bond yield volatility

Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, Bloomberg, Allianz Global Investors.
Data as at 31 March 2020.

Breaking down bond liquidity

Historically, these levels of volatility in yields and spreads have coincided with low liquidity. In simplified terms, market liquidity is the ability to sell or buy an asset, as close to the required quantity and price as possible, without causing outsized price moves.

As the coronavirus crisis took hold, the demand-supply balance was shaken both in the global economy and in financial assets. As a result, market liquidity was hit by pronounced uncertainty around asset values and fund outflows. Bond dealers reported much wider than average bid-ask spreads in the Treasury market, and exchange-traded interest rate futures were halted several times due to extreme price moves.

In credit markets, the sell-off did not seem to discriminate according to quality or duration and a record fast rate of fund outflows contributed to a demand-side shock. Many investors rushed to raise cash by selling what they considered their most liquid holdings, as they were unable or unwilling to sell riskier assets. As a result, larger and higher-rated issuers were hit harder at first. Some investment-grade bond ETFs traded at deeper discounts than high-yield ETFs. Investment-grade curves flattened, with spreads converging on bonds maturing 25 years apart. Some credit curves even inverted, with spreads on short-term highly rated debt exceeding those of longer-dated, lower-rated bonds.

The liquidity shock also had something to do with supply. Research shows that, while central bank bond purchases have historically improved underlying liquidity in times of heightened volatility, over time ballooning bond holdings at central banks and other financial institutions can make certain assets scarcer. Moreover, there are now fewer investment banks and other dealers willing to intermediate sizeable bond trades due to higher capital and risk charges on their balance sheets. In stressed markets, the remaining intermediaries and investors either pull back or naturally charge more to compensate for the increased risk they must bear.

It is worth remembering that, despite liquidity concerns, bond markets remained open amid unprecedented market swings and a once-in-a-century health crisis. Central banks have stepped in to repair liquidity and underwrite debt markets for the foreseeable future. Spreads remain highly elevated but have come down. In investment-grade credit, new bond issuance has restarted and fund flows have returned to positive. Government and higher-rated corporate bonds have clearly benefited from central bank backstops but are likely to remain volatile in the medium term.

Preparing for future shocks

What does all this mean for bond investors? There’s good and bad news. The bad news is that these volatility and liquidity shocks may happen again and it’s difficult for anyone to predict their timing. The good news is that we can control how we react to these shocks through active risk management and a high conviction approach. For bond investors, there are two main lessons from the recent market dislocation:

  • Stay safe and liquid. We think core bonds continue to be attractive for now, especially as a diversifier against marked-down corporate bonds, which can benefit from price recovery and yields-to-maturity. However, safe-haven yields may continue to see outsized moves around the zero bound. Adding liquid interest rate futures and credit index derivatives where possible – and maintaining a good cash buffer – could further help to contain rate and credit volatility in portfolios.
    During the recent market turmoil, portfolios benefited from replenishing cash and reweighting positions when liquidity spreads improved, typically on the days before and after central banks announced stimulus measures. These trading sessions are worth exploiting, since liquidity spreads tend to widen again over time. In the days after central banks started injecting massive liquidity, many investors found it easier to sell cash bonds, but difficult to buy them. In two-sided markets, this is typically a sign of structurally impaired market-making and investor participation.
  • Stick to quality credit. The kind of broad-based, distressed valuations we have seen recently will eventually give way to a recovery in liquidity, and performance will become more dispersed. High-quality issuers with strong cashflows and capital structures are best placed to weather this economic shutdown. Many emerging markets have strong sovereign balance sheets and should bounce back, although some frontier economies face external financing pressures and will need debt restructuring.
    In investment-grade credit, well-capitalised firms have already come back to primary markets with oversubscribed issues. However, others have seen their debt grow faster than cash and earnings in recent years. About half of the market is rated BBB, and around a third of these issuers would immediately drop to sub-investment-grade if downgraded, presenting opportunities for high-yield investors.
    In high-yield, average duration shortened by a third over the past decade, while ratings improved with the majority of issuers now at BB. Still, averages can mask big differences in underlying credit quality. In summary, given the anticipated shake-up across the ratings spectrum, we believe that active strategies focused both on best-quality, crossover and multi-sector credit opportunities are well positioned to outperform.

 

>download

 

With China going back to work, how are other Asian economies faring?

24/04/2020
With China going back to work, how are other Asian economies faring?

Summary

Asian markets experienced a rollercoaster ride in Q1, chiefly due to the impact of the coronavirus outbreak. Now there are signs that a recovery in China, albeit moderate, may help wider Asian economies to stabilise. This could create opportunities for long-term investors.

Key takeaways

  • Following the coronavirus lockdown, most Chinese businesses have returned to work and key indicators are moving towards pre-pandemic levels
  • Even a moderate Chinese recovery should help drive similar recoveries in other Asian economies when they emerge from the peak of the crisis
  • The pandemic’s economic impact is not yet fully known, and investors should exercise caution and to be selective
  • Long-term investors with strong holding power may see opportunities in emerging Asia – which can offer good value

Allianz Global Investors

You are leaving this website and being re-directed to the below website. This does not imply any approval or endorsement of the information by Allianz Global Investors Asia Pacific Limited contained in the redirected website nor does Allianz Global Investors Asia Pacific Limited accept any responsibility or liability in connection with this hyperlink and the information contained herein. Please keep in mind that the redirected website may contain funds and strategies not authorized for offering to the public in your jurisdiction. Besides, please also take note on the redirected website’s terms and conditions, privacy and security policies, or other legal information. By clicking “Continue”, you confirm you acknowledge the details mentioned above and would like to continue accessing the redirected website. Please click “Stay here” if you have any concerns.

Welcome to Allianz Global Investors

Select your language
  • 中文(繁體)
  • English
Select your role
  • Individual Investor
  • Intermediaries
  • Other Investors
  • Pension Investors
  • Allianz Global Investors Fund (“AGIF”)

    • Allianz Global Investors Fund (“AGIF”) as an umbrella fund under the UCITS regulations has within it different sub-funds investing in fixed income securities, equities, and derivative instruments, each with a different investment objective and/or risk profile.

    • All sub-funds (“Sub-Funds”) may invest in financial derivative instruments (“FDI”) which may expose to higher leverage, counterparty, liquidity, valuation, volatility, market and over the counter transaction risks. A Sub-Fund’s net derivative exposure may be up to 50% of its NAV. 

    • Some Sub-Funds as part of their investments may invest in any one or a combination of the instruments such as fixed income securities, emerging market securities, and/or mortgage-backed securities, asset-backed securities, property-backed securities (especially REITs) and/or structured products and/or FDI, exposing to various potential risks (including leverage, counterparty, liquidity, valuation, volatility, market, fluctuations in the value of and the rental income received in respect of the underlying property, and over the counter transaction risks). 

    • Some Sub-Funds may invest in single countries or industry sectors (in particular small/mid cap companies) which may reduce risk diversification. Some Sub-Funds are exposed to significant risks which include investment/general market, country and region, emerging market (such as Mainland China), creditworthiness/credit rating/downgrading, default, asset allocation, interest rate, volatility and liquidity, counterparty, sovereign debt, valuation, credit rating agency, company-specific, currency  (in particular RMB), RMB debt securities and Mainland China tax risks. 

    • Some Sub-Funds may invest in convertible bonds, high-yield, non-investment grade investments and unrated securities that may subject to higher risks (include volatility, loss of principal and interest, creditworthiness and downgrading, default, interest rate, general market and liquidity risks) and therefore may adversely impact the net asset value of the Sub-Funds. Convertibles will be exposed prepayment risk, equity movement and greater volatility than straight bond investments.

    • Some Sub-Funds may invest a significant portion of the assets in interest-bearing securities issued or guaranteed by a non-investment grade sovereign issuer (e.g. Philippines) and is subject to higher risks of liquidity, credit, concentration and default of the sovereign issuer as well as greater volatility and higher risk profile that may result in significant losses to the investors. 

    • Some Sub-Funds may invest in European countries. The economic and financial difficulties in Europe may get worse and adversely affect the Sub-Funds (such as increased volatility, liquidity and currency risks associated with investments in Europe).

    • Some Sub-Funds may invest in the China A-Shares market, China B-Shares market and/or debt securities directly  via the Stock Connect or the China Interbank Bond Market or Bond Connect and or other foreign access regimes and/or other permitted means and/or indirectly through all eligible instruments the qualified foreign institutional investor program regime and thus is subject to the associated risks (including quota limitations, change in rule and regulations, repatriation of the Fund’s monies, trade restrictions, clearing and settlement, China market volatility and uncertainty, China market volatility and uncertainty, potential clearing and/or settlement difficulties and, change in economic, social and political policy in the PRC and taxation Mainland China tax risks).  Investing in RMB share classes is also exposed to RMB currency risks and adverse impact on the share classes due to currency depreciation.

    • Some Sub-Funds may adopt the following strategies, Sustainable and Responsible Investment Strategy, SDG-Aligned Strategy, Sustainability Key Performance Indicator Strategy (Relative), Green Bond Strategy, Multi Asset Sustainable Strategy, Sustainability Key Performance Indicator Strategy (Absolute Threshold), Environment, Social and Governance (“ESG”) Score Strategy, and Sustainability Key Performance Indicator Strategy (Absolute). The Sub-Funds may be exposed to sustainable investment risks relating to the strategies (such as foregoing opportunities to buy certain securities when it might otherwise be advantageous to do so, selling securities when it might be disadvantageous to do so, and/or relying on information and data from third party ESG research data providers and internal analyses which may be subjective, incomplete, inaccurate or unavailable and/or reducing risk diversifications compared to broadly based funds) which may result in the Sub-Fund being more volatile and have adverse impact on the performance of the Sub-Fund and consequently adversely affect an investor’s investment in the Sub-Fund. Also, some Sub-Funds may be particularly focusing on the GHG efficiency of the investee companies rather than their financial performance which may have an adverse impact on the Fund’s performance.

    • Some Sub-Funds may invest in share class with fixed distribution percentage (Class AMf). Investors should note that fixed distribution percentage is not guaranteed. The share class is not an alternative to fixed interest paying investment. The percentage of distributions paid by these share classes is unrelated to expected or past income or returns of these share classes or the Sub-Funds. Distribution will continue even the Sub-Fund has negative returns and may adversely impact the net asset value of the Sub-Fund.  Positive distribution yield does not imply positive return.

    • Investment involves risks that could result in loss of part or entire amount of investors’ investment.

    • In making investment decisions, investors should not rely solely on this [website/material].

    Note: Dividend payments may, at the sole discretion of the Investment Manager, be made out of the Sub-Fund’s capital or effectively out of the Sub-Fund’s capital which represents a return or withdrawal of part of the amount investors originally invested and/or capital gains attributable to the original investment. This may result in an immediate decrease in the NAV per share and the capital of the Sub-Fund available for investment in the future and capital growth may be reduced, in particular for hedged share classes for which the distribution amount and NAV of any hedged share classes (HSC) may be adversely affected by differences in the interests rates of the reference currency of the HSC and the base currency of the respective Sub-Fund. Dividend payments are applicable for Class A/AM/AMg/AMi/AMgi/AQ Dis (Annually/Monthly/Quarterly distribution) and for reference only but not guaranteed.  Positive distribution yield does not imply positive return. For details, please refer to the Sub-Fund’s distribution policy disclosed in the offering documents.

     


    Allianz Global Investors Asia Fund

    • Allianz Global Investors Asia Fund (the “Trust”) is an umbrella unit trust constituted under the laws of Hong Kong pursuant to the Trust Deed. Allianz Thematic Income and Allianz Selection Income and Growth and Allianz Yield Plus Fund are the sub-funds of the Trust (each a “Sub-Fund”) investing in fixed income securities, equities and derivative instrument, each with a different investment objective and/or risk profile.

    • Some Sub-Funds are exposed to significant risks which include investment/general market, company-specific, emerging market, creditworthiness/credit rating/downgrading, default, volatility and liquidity, valuation, sovereign debt, thematic concentration, thematic-based investment strategy, counterparty, interest rate changes, country and region, asset allocation risks and currency (such as exchange controls, in particular RMB), and the adverse impact on RMB share classes due to currency depreciation.  

    • Some Sub-Funds may invest in other underlying collective schemes and exchange traded funds. Investing in exchange traded funds may expose to additional risks such as passive investment, tracking error, underlying index, trading and termination. While investing in other underlying collective schemes (“CIS”) may subject to the risks associated to such CIS. 

    • Some Sub-Funds may invest in high-yield (non-investment grade and unrated) investments and/or convertible bonds which may subject to higher risks, such as volatility, creditworthiness, default, interest rate changes, general market and liquidity risks and therefore may  adversely impact the net asset value of the Fund. Convertibles may also expose to risks such as prepayment, equity movement, and greater volatility than straight bond investments.

    • All Sub-Funds may invest in financial derivative instruments (“FDI”) which may expose to higher leverage, counterparty, liquidity, valuation, volatility, market and over the counter transaction risks.  The use of derivatives may result in losses to the Sub-Funds which are greater than the amount originally invested. A Sub-Fund’s net derivative exposure may be up to 50% of its NAV.

    • These investments may involve risks that could result in loss of part or entire amount of investors’ investment.

    • In making investment decisions, investors should not rely solely on this website.

    Note: Dividend payments may, at the sole discretion of the Investment Manager, be made out of the Sub-Fund’s income and/or capital which in the latter case represents a return or withdrawal of part of the amount investors originally invested and/or capital gains attributable to the original investment. This may result in an immediate decrease in the NAV per distribution unit and the capital of the Sub-Fund available for investment in the future and capital growth may be reduced, in particular for hedged share classes for which the distribution amount and NAV of any hedged share classes (HSC) may be adversely affected by differences in the interests rates of the reference currency of the HSC and the base currency of the Sub-Fund. Dividend payments are applicable for Class A/AM/AMg/AMi/AMgi Dis (Annually/Monthly distribution) and for reference only but not guaranteed.  Positive distribution yield does not imply positive return. For details, please refer to the Sub-Fund’s distribution policy disclosed in the offering documents.

     

Please indicate you have read and understood the Important Notice.